One of the easiest ways to find value during the fantasy football season is by exploring touchdown regression. The concept is simple: if a player is getting a lot of touches and racking up yardage, but they haven’t reached pay dirt nearly as often as you’d think, then they’re a candidate for touchdown regression. If the touches are sustainable, then touchdowns should eventually follow and the player’s touchdown totals should regress back to the average (or closer to what you’d expect from a player with that many touches). It works both ways too; if a player has an abnormally high touchdown rate, then that production is likely regress back to the average.

Since touchdowns are more unpredictable than yardage, using touchdown regression allows us to view the larger picture, which will normally win out in the long run. I say normally because there are instances in which a player can maintain an abnormally high touchdown rate throughout the season. Michael Turner and Santana Moss come to mind from last season.

The fact that touchdowns are so valuable in fantasy football makes using this tool much more effective. Fantasy points are the bottom line for many fantasy owners when judging a player and each touchdown happens to be worth the same as 60 total yards. Let me take you through a lengthy, hypothetical example…

Andre Brown may have 45 fantasy points through the first four games of 2013, while Chris Ivory has only 36 fantasy points during that same four game stretch. At that point, Brown has been the superior fantasy player to Ivory, right? I mean he does have 25% more total fantasy points than him. Well that’s great for the first four weeks, but which player is the better option for the remainder of the season? Whose production is more sustainable?

Let’s say that Brown earned those 45 fantasy points on 48 touches for 210 total yards and 4 touchdowns. As for Ivory, let’s say that he earned his 36 points on 68 touches for 300 total yards and only 1 touchdown.

Since Ivory is awarded a greater opportunity (touches), he should continue to outpace Brown in the yardage department. However, touchdowns are a different story. At this point, I would expect Brown’s touchdown rate, which currently would project to 16 touchdowns over a full season, to fall to closer to normalcy. On the other hand, I would expect Ivory’s touchdown rate, which would currently project to only 4 touchdowns over a full season, to rise closer to normalcy. This would make for a perfect opportunity to swap the two running backs in a trade because even though Brown has outscored Ivory through the first four weeks, accounting for touchdown regression indicates Ivory as the superior fantasy player.

The season then continues and the two running backs fall right into line with expected yardage totals; Brown finishes with 840 total yards and Ivory with 1200 total yards. During the final 12 weeks, both running backs also recorded an average touchdown output of 6 touchdowns each. Their final totals would be as follows:

After Brown’s high touchdown rate resulted in 11.25 FPPG through the first four games, he only averaged 8.25 for the remainder of the season after touchdown regression. Ivory’s low touchdown rate kept his FPPG in check at 9.0 for the first four games, but he managed to average 10.5 FPPG after touchdown regression.

I must stress once again that touchdown regression is a long-term tool and there can be exceptions. Abnormally high or low touchdown rates may last throughout a season. That was the case with Jordy Nelson’s 15 touchdowns in 2011, which raised his ADP the following season and I believe it is also a reason why Steve Smith (4 touchdowns last season) is being overlooked this year.

In the long run, accounting for touchdown regression will win out, so keep that in mind while you’re aiming for a fantasy football championship.